A finding by the UNESCO‘s Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Team estimates that the global out-of-school population has risen to an estimated 272 million—over 21 million more than previously reported.

This increase is due to updated enrolment and attendance data (accounting for eight million, or 38% of the rise) and new UN population estimates (accounting for 13 million, or 62%). The 2024 World Population Prospects show that the school-age population (ages six–17) in 2025 will be 49 million higher than earlier projections.

They said that a key factor in this increase is the 2021 ban on secondary education for girls in Afghanistan. Conflict and crisis zones also contribute significantly but are likely underrepresented in the data due to disrupted data collection.

Currently, about 11% of primary school-age children (78 million), 15% of lower secondary adolescents (64 million), and 31% of upper secondary youths (130 million) are not attending school.

The GEM model uses a mix of administrative, survey, and census data to create consistent trends and short-term projections. However, these modeled estimates differ from official country-reported figures, which form the basis of national targets.

According to the Sustainable Development Goals 4 Scorecard, if countries meet their education targets, the global out-of-school population could decrease by 165 million by 2030. However, by 2025, countries are projected to be off-track by 75 million students—due to being four percentage points behind for primary and lower secondary, and six points behind for upper secondary.

The report warns that emergencies, such as conflicts, pose a serious challenge to tracking education progress, likely causing underestimations in out-of-school populations due to the sudden disruption in education and lack of reliable data.

Inputs from PTI

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